Jan 3, 2026

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Water Levels & Rainfall

Recent Water Levels (feet below spill level)
Feb 28, 2026: 1.45 (water level periodically artificially lowered since January 3rd storm)
Jan 3, 2026: Spilling (~4 inches above spill level during peak of storm)
Nov 22, 2025: 3.11
Nov 12, 2025: 7.60
Mar 13, 2025: 3.48
Jan 2025: 5.40
Apr 2024: Full/Spilled

Scroll down for historical water level and rainfall information

For Lake Los Carneros to fill each year it seems to need about 16 to 17 inches of rain. The Goleta Fire Station rainfall monitor average is 18.38 inches per year.

January 3, 2026 - water level ~4 inches above spill level during peak of storm
(tap on image to view video)

In the early 60's the spillway was added and the lake level was lowered to where it is today. Since then the lake has gone through several multi-year "wet" or "dry" periods. Periods when there is never two years in a row of less than 16 inches of rain and periods when there are never two years in a row of more than 16 inches of rain.

May 2024 - Full

Tap here to download the historical rainfall totals for the Goleta Fire Station rainfall monitor
(Red highlight indicates years of less than 16 inches of rain. Green highlight indicates years of 16 inches of rain or more.)

Using 16 inches of rainfall per year as a baseline 1945 through 1954 was mostly "dry". But in 1955 the trend started to change. Except for a three year period of low rain in the late 50s/early 60s and one other in the early 70s from 1955 through 1983 there was never two years in a row of less than 16 inches of rain.

Jan 2023: Lake spills for the first time since 2011

Rainfall records indicate that the lake most likely spilled for three years in a row in 1967 and 1975. And for a historical 6 years in a row from 1978 through 1983. This coincides with the stories I hear of the lake being "healthy" and full most of the time during the 70s.

May 2010 - ~3 ft. below spill level

The 80's we entered another period where we did not get two years in a row of enough rain and the lake suffered. In addition, after a historical rainfall year of nearly 50 inches in 1982-1983, the water level was lowered artificially.

Oct 2014: Water level ~12 ft. below spill level

I first visited Lake Los Carneros in the Fall 1983. The water level of the lake was ~12 ft. below spill level and it was the beginning of another dry period.

Oct 2015: Nearly a straight line from Frog Beach to Stow Point as the water level reaches ~13.5 ft. below spill level

Oct 2013 - ~9 ft. below spill level

This dry period caused the water level of the lake to drop to over 15 ft. below spill level in early 1991. The "March Miracle" rain of 1991 produced over 12" of rain in one month brought the lake back up a couple of feet from spilling. Although close to spilling in 1992 the lake did not actually spill until 1993.

Mar 1993: Lake spills for the first time since 1983

This wet period continued through 2011. During this period there were only a handful of years of less than 16 inches of rain and there was never more than one year in a row of less than 16 inches of rain. The lake never dropped below ~9 ft below spill level and was relatively healthy. Similar to the stories I heard from the 60s and 70s. Unfortunately this healthy streak ended in 2012.

Jan 2026: First time the lake spills for the third time in four years since 2003
(tap on image to view video)

2012 was the start of another period of low rainfall. Causing the water level of the lake to pass 10 ft. below spill level for the first time in over 20 years. In October of 2014, after four years in a row of low rainfall, the water level dropped to over 11 ft. below spill level. The drain and "The Ledge" were exposed for the first time since the "March Miracle" rains in 1991.

Aug 2014 - ~11 ft. below spill level

A little over 7 inches of rain in November and December of 2014 provided an additional 3 ft. of fresh water pushing it back up to just a little over 8 ft. below spill level. This combined with another 4.5 inches of rain in 2015 was not enough to keep the water from dropping to a historic ~13 ft. below spill level by the Fall of 2015.

Apr 1993: Lake spills for the first time in over a decade

Nov 2014: Spillway completely dry

The water level dropped to over 14 ft. below spill level by December of 2016. Above average rain in February and March of 2017 added nearly 13 feet of water into the lake. Bringing the water level to within a little over a foot from spilling but unfortunately 2018 was another year of below average rainfall. Above average rain in 2019 helped but was was followed by another three years of below average rain.

Nov 2015 - ~14 ft. below spill level

Feb 2015: Measuring the water level between storms

On March 22, 2023 Lake Los Carneros spilled for the first time since 2011. Another 20+ inches of rain in 2024 caused it to spill again in 2024. The lake did not spill in 2025 but on January 1, 2026 due to a couple early season storms the lake spilled. Making it the first time the lake has spilled three times in four years since 2003.

A couple days later at the peak of another heavy storm the water level rose to about 4 inches above spill level.

November 2025 - water level ~3 ft. below spill level

July 2014 - ~10 ft. below spill level: The ledge just barely exposed

June 2016 - ~12 ft. below spill level: The drain exposed and pipe out beyond the drain visible

January 2016 - ~14 ft. below spill level: The pipe out beyond the drain exposed

    

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Lake Depths

1999 Depth: ~20 ft. (measured using an electronic depth finder)
2011 Depth: ~19 ft. (measured using a marked rope with a weight on the end)

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Rainfall & Water Levels

Green = Less than 2 feet below spill level
Red = 10+ feet below spill level

*Known occurrences of lake being artificially lowered by opening the drain.

Questions/Comments: pete@lakeloscarneros.com

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